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中国经济减速波及德国企业

来源: FT中文网     阅读:  次     收藏本文
        Trains laden with German machinery and industrial components depart from Duisburg, Hamburg or Leipzig several times a week bound for markets and manufacturing plants in China.
        每周都有好几趟满载着德国机械和工业零件的火车从杜伊斯堡、汉堡或莱比锡出发,目的地是中国的市场和制造厂。
 
        Sending goods via the 11,000km trans-Siberian route is much cheaper than air freight and takes a little over two weeks — about twice as fast as shipping the containers by sea. Trains bearing Chinese textiles, electronics and consumer goods journey back the other way.
        通过1.1万公里长的西伯利亚铁路运送货物要比空运便宜得多,而且用时仅两周多一点时间,几乎比集装箱海运快一倍。返程时这些火车又载回了中国的纺织品、电子产品和消费品。
 
        As China’s stock market sinks and its economy slows these deep trade links are an increasing source of concern in Germany: Europe’s biggest economy is reliant on exports and has been a particular beneficiary of China’s sustained boom.
        受中国经济放缓以及A股市场走低影响,上述深层贸易联系正日益引起德国关注:德国是欧洲最大经济体,其经济依赖于出口,尤其一直受益于中国的持续繁荣。
 
         But having expanded by 11 per cent last year, German exports to China increased by a modest 1.4 per cent in the first five months of this year.
        去年德国对华出口增长了11%,今年前5个月却仅增长1.4%。
 
        German machinery exports to China fell 5 per cent in the first half of 2015 and Volkswagen and BMW’s car sales in China have started to wane. German auto, engineering and chemical stocks have tumbled.
        2015年上半年德国对华机械出口同比下降5%,大众(Volkswagen)和宝马(BMW)在华销售开始减弱。德国的汽车、工程和化工行业股票均受到重挫。
 
        Thomas Kargl, chief executive of Far East Land Bridge, a Vienna-based logistics company, says he has not observed a decline in freight volumes on the trans-Siberian route. On the contrary, business increased strongly in the first six months of this year because freight ­customers have become more cost-conscious, he says.
        总部位于维也纳的物流公司Far East Land Bridge的首席执行官托马斯•卡格尔(Thomas Kargl)表示,他并未观察到西伯利亚铁路的货运量出现下降。相反,今年上半年其业务增长强劲,因为货运客户越来越在意成本。
 
        Nevertheless, Ralph Solveen, an economist at Commerzbank, warned “there can be no doubt that the latest news from China is a concern . . . China’s economic problems have increased the downside risks for the German economy.”
        尽管如此,德国商业银行(Commerzbank)经济学家拉尔夫•左尔文(Ralph Solveen)警告说“最近来自中国的消息无疑值得关注……中国的经济问题加大了德国经济下行风险。”
 
        German companies were among the first international groups to move into China and have reaped rich rewards. BMW enjoyed a 45 per cent compound annual sales growth rate in China between 2005 and 2012, which made China its largest sales market. At VW, Germany’s largest company by revenues, China accounted for almost 40 per cent of its car sales last year.
        德国企业是第一批进驻中国的外国公司,它们获得了丰厚的回报。2005年到2012年期间,宝马在华销量年均复合增长率达到45%,中国成了宝马最大的销售市场。大众汽车是德国营收最高的公司,去年中国占其汽车销量近40%。
 
        Bilateral trade between Germany and China totalled €154bn in 2014. China is Germany’s fourth-largest export market and some 5,200 German companies are active there.
        2014年德中双边贸易额总计1540亿欧元。中国是德国第四大出口市场,目前约有5200家德国企业在华经商。
 
        “Of course a certain amount of caution is necessary but I don’t see a really dramatic impact on the German economy, in particular because exports to the United States remain strong, and European demand is recovering,” said Tim Gemkow, economist at the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). “Germany is strongly export orientated but those exports are quite well balanced.”
        德国工商总会(DIHK)经济学家蒂姆•格姆科夫(Tim Gemkow)表示:“当然,一定的谨慎是必要的,但我没有真正看到德国经济受到巨大影响,尤其考虑到德国对美国出口仍保持强劲,以及欧洲需求正在恢复。德国是个出口导向程度很深的国家,但这些出口都相当平衡。”
 
         German companies have been warning about a normalisation of the China market for some time. They have tried to avoid growing too dependent on sales there by expanding in other emerging markets (although many of those are now looking vulnerable, too). Overall, China accounts for 6.5 per cent of total German exports and so some analysts argue the slowdown is manageable.
        一段时间以来,德国企业不断警告中国市场的正常化。它们试图通过拓展其他新兴市场,避免越来越过分依赖对中国的出口,尽管现在看来许多新兴市场也不可靠。总体而言,中国占德国出口总额6.5%,因此部分分析师认为对中国出口放缓是可控的。
 
        Andreas Rüter, Germany chief at AlixPartners, the consultancy, said many German machinery companies had only just started to tap the potential of the Chinese market and therefore they still expected strong growth there in coming years.
        咨询公司艾睿铂(AlixPartners)驻德负责人安德烈亚斯•吕特尔(Andreas Rüter)表示,许多德国机械企业刚开始挖掘中国市场的潜力,因此它们仍预计未来几年在华业务增长强劲。
 
        “Companies should use this period of slower growth to consolidate and do their homework in China: it’s not just about cost-savings, but also checking up on their suppliers, reporting and governance structures,” he said.
        他说:“企业应该利用这段增长放缓期,在中国巩固业务和做好功课,不仅要节约成本,还要检查它们的供应商,以及报告和治理结构。”
 
        But some observers worry the export statistics underplay China’s true importance to Germany’s economy — in particular to its automakers, which support a huge number of domestic suppliers. That is because German companies increasingly manufacture and sell locally in China — German direct investment in China totalled $2.1bn last year.
        但一些观察人士担心出口统计数据淡化了中国对德国经济的真正重要性,尤其是对德国汽车制造商的重要性,它们支撑着大批德国国内的供应商。这是因为德国企业不断扩大在中国本地的生产和销售,去年德国对华直接投资总额达21亿美元。
 
        German carmakers do not provide detailed information on their China earnings. Some analysts estimate they account for between 30 and 65 per cent for German automakers.
        德国的汽车制造商没有提供它们在华盈利的详细信息,一些分析师估计在华盈利占其总盈利30%到65%之间。
 
       “All the German carmakers have played down the importance of Chinese profitability because of the sensitivities surrounding making so much money out of one market,” Max Warburton at Bernstein Research, said. “The impact of losing China is massive”.
        伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的马克斯•沃伯顿(Max Warburton)说:“所有德国汽车制造商均淡化在华盈利的重要性,这是因为从一个市场赚取这么多利润涉及的敏感性。失去中国的影响是巨大的。”
 
        The devaluation of China’s currency means their local sales are now worth less when converted into euros and rising competition from domestic producers has forced German carmakers to slash prices, which puts further pressure on margins.
        人民币贬值意味着德国车企的在华销售转换成欧元时更不值钱了,再加上中国车企竞争力日益增强迫使德国车企降价销售,对其利润构成进一步压力。
 
        Mr Solveen said a marked reduction in Chinese earnings margins would almost certainly prompt companies “to scale down their investment in Germany as well”.
        左尔文表示,德国车企在华利润率的明显降低,几乎肯定会促使企业“也削减在德国的投资”。
 
        Any tightening in corporate spending at home would be a problem for Germany as weak rates of business investment are already holding back the recovery. Berlin expects the German economy to expand by 1.8 per cent this year and the same amount next year.
        对于德国来说,如果企业缩减国内支出将会成为一个问题,商业投资率低迷已阻碍了德国经济复苏。柏林方面预计德国经济今年将增长1.8%,明年也将保持同样的增幅。
 
        “A lot of upper middle class Chinese people have lost a lot of money [on the stock market],” said Anton Boerner, president of BGA, the German exporters’ association. “If you lose a lot of money, you don’t buy a Porsche.”
        德国出口商协会——德国外贸和批发商协会(BGA)的主席安东•伯尔纳(Anton Boerner)表示:“中国许多中上阶层群体已经(在股市)损失了很多钱。损失了很多钱的人是不会去买保时捷(Porsche)的。”
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