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欧洲能否坚持原有价值观?

来源: FT中文网     阅读:  次     收藏本文
        It is still unclear exactly what Brussels has faced just prior to Easter. The random nature of the date and targeting suggests a plot that may have been brought forward, while the scale of the attack suggests it must have been in the pipeline for some time. The ISIS network, also linked to November’s Paris attacks, has claimed responsibility. The bigger issue, however, is not who is to blame for this atrocity but rather how much Europe will warp to address an acute terrorist threat, with cells apparently able to launch large-scale atrocities on an increasingly regular basis.         
        布鲁塞尔在复活节临近之际到底面临着什么,我们现在还不得而知。此次袭击在日期和目标上的随机性,表明相关袭击计划可能被提前了,而此次袭击的规模表明该计划已经酝酿了一段时间。“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)组织已声称对此次袭击负责,该组织还与去年11月巴黎恐袭事件有关。但是,更大的问题并不是这起暴行应由谁负责,而是欧洲将发生多大的“扭曲”,来应对一场严峻的恐怖威胁——恐怖团伙似乎已经可以越来越常规化地发动大规模暴行。
       
        The first questions raised will focus on Belgium’s response to the problem on their home ground. Authorities may have scored a victory by capturing Salah Abdeslam, one of the ISIS-aligned plotters linked to the Paris attacks, but they missed a network planning an atrocity with heavy weapons and explosives. This suggests gaps in the understanding and surveillance of the terrorist threat. Given that Brussels sits at the political heart of Europe, this points to a problem that can no longer be described as Belgian alone.                
        人们首先提出的问题将集中在比利时在本国境内对恐怖威胁的反应。比利时当局在抓捕萨拉赫•阿卜杜勒-萨拉姆(Salah Abdeslam)——巴黎恐袭事件策划者之一,支持ISIS——的行动上可能取得了一场胜利,但他们漏掉了一个计划用重型武器和炸药发动暴行的恐怖团伙。这表明当局对恐怖威胁的了解和监督存在不足。鉴于布鲁塞尔位于欧洲政治中心,这可能不再只是比利时一国的问题。
       
        While for some the terrorist atrocities in Paris was a wake-up call, for security forces it had been expected for a while. Terrorist groups, from al-Qaeda to ISIS, have long sought to launch a terrorist attack in the style of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and a string of plots have been disrupted or launched from a francophone network emanating from Brussels. The Paris attack was the realisation of these fears from a depressingly predictable place.                
        对于有些人来说,巴黎的恐怖暴行敲响了一记警钟,但安全部门一段时间以来对此已有所预料。从基地组织到ISIS,恐怖组织一直在寻求发动2008年孟买连环爆炸案式的恐怖袭击,而且一个来自布鲁塞尔的法语群体已策划了一连串袭击阴谋,其中若干计划已被瓦解。明知一个地方可能遭到恐怖袭击是多么令人沮丧,这样的忧虑在巴黎恐怖袭击事件中得到了应验。
       
        The networks of radicalised individuals with links to ISIS have grown as the group continues to hold sway on the battlefield and send back people and plots to their original bases in western Europe. Given the tempo of attacks and the ease with which the networks appear able to acquire weapons and move freely around the continent, Europeans will ask themselves how much longer they will face this threat. Is this the start of a regular diet of such atrocities or the breaking of a wave? Given that terrorist groups have been able to launch three big, ambitious plots in Europe in the past year and half, the sense will be that we are in the thick of this threat with no end in sight.                
        由与ISIS有关联的激进个人纠集而成的组织不断壮大势力,而ISIS继续在战场上耀武扬威并把人手输送回他们原来在西欧的据点,让他们策划发动袭击。鉴于这些恐怖袭击发生的频率,以及这些组织似乎能轻易获取武器,并在欧洲大陆上来去自如,欧洲人不禁会问自己,他们还要在这种威胁下生活多久?这只是此类暴行常规化的开端,还是一种突变?鉴于过去一年半时间里,恐怖组织已经能在欧洲发动三起大型恐怖袭击,感觉我们正深陷这种威胁中,看不到尽头。
       
        The choice of targets is predictable. Terrorist groups have long fetishised aviation as a target, both as a way of visibly lashing out against the globalised political establishment but also for the high impact. Mass transport systems by their very nature have to be open to the public, which makes them tempting targets as they offer an easy opportunity to strike at the heart of a society. Questions will be asked about ramping up security levels but this will bring costs and further inconvenience to the daily lives of citizens. Think of the ramifications of a plot in 2006 where a cell planned to use liquid bombs on a series of transatlantic flights. Liquids are still banned on aircraft today.               
        恐怖袭击的目标是可预测的。恐怖组织长期以来一直痴迷于航空系统这一目标,这既能明显打击全球化政治体制,又能造成极大影响。就大众运输系统的本质而言,它必须向公众开放,这令它们成为了诱人的目标,因为它们提供了打击社会核心的方便机会。人们会就提高安全级别提出种种问题,但这将带来成本,并将进一步增加民众日常生活的不便。想想2006年那次恐袭阴谋造成的后果吧,一伙恐怖分子计划在一批跨大西洋航班上引爆液体炸弹,结果飞机上至今禁止随身携带液体。
       
        The Brussels attacks will also play badly against the backdrop of Europe’s migration crisis. It will not be entirely surprising if elements close to the recent attacks found ways of slipping into the country alongside refugees from the Middle East. An already tense situation in Europe will grow more fraught, and this will have inevitable political ramifications too.        
        在欧洲移民危机的背景下,布鲁塞尔袭击事件还将产生恶劣影响。如果与近期袭击有关的恐怖分子是随着中东难民潮溜入该国的,不会令人感到太奇怪。欧洲本已紧张的局势将变得更加险恶,而且这还将产生不可避免的政治影响。
       
        This is the biggest problem with which security planners will have to contend. It is often said that the best response to a terrorist threat is to keep calm and carry on. This is sage advice but in the face of a network that appears able to strike with impunity, and a political environment growing more toxic by the day, it will be ever harder for security forces and politicians to ensure that Europe maintains its values in the face of the terrorist threat from within.              
        这是安全政策制定者不得不应对的最大问题。人们常说面对恐怖威胁,最好的回应就是保持冷静,继续生活。这是一条明智的建议,但面对这样一个似乎能造成打击而不受惩罚的组织,加上政治环境变得日益危险,安全部门和政治家想要确保欧洲在面对源自内部的恐怖威胁之时坚持原有价值观将越来越困难。
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